Welcome back returning contestants and hello to new participants, my name is Adam Green. As a project for my Sotheby's graduate class in Art Business, I am developing and organizing a collection of surveys for art auctions which you and others may utilize to help predict the future short term direction of art prices.
Like the first two surveys in February and May, this third survey also consists of five prominent post-war and contemporary artworks. This survey includes works from both Christie’s Post War and Contemporary Evening and Afternoon auctions which respectively occur on June 30th and July 1st, 2008, in London. Information provided to you consists of images of all 5 artworks, final sales estimates, sizes, mediums, condition reports, and provenances. As a participant, you are asked to predict the final hammer price (excluding buyer's premium) achieved at auction for the five artworks. I also ask you to rate each art object, on a scale of #1 through #10, on the quality of the artwork within the artists' oeuvre, with #10 being the artist's most superior work.
Prior to the sale, each participant will receive via email the cumulative predictions indicating the range of all expected sales price values. You will also see the consensus view regarding the quality of each work. Following the June 30th and July 1st sales, each participant will receive via email the survey with actual hammer sales prices annotated on the survey. Like all prediction markets, incentives for participants to make accurate predictions results in more accurate individual and cumulative valuations. Consequently, the three participants who most accurately value the five artworks will receive a Visa gift card for 50 pounds along with recognition in the subsequent survey, unless such recognition is refused.
Please submit your predictions by June 25th. Thank you very much for your participation.